{"id":"cs-renewal-forecast-weighted-table","audience":"managers","category":"support-work","technique":"verification","track":"support","level":"intermediate","title":"Build a weighted renewal forecast with the latest probabilities","free":false,"task":"Build a weighted renewal forecast. Output a table with the header row exactly \"Account | ARR | Prob | Expected\" and five rows, where Expected = ARR x Prob. Then two last lines: \"Total expected:\" with the sum, and \"At risk:\" listing accounts with a probability of 50% or lower. Use the latest probability for each account. Plain text, under 100 words.","materialLabel":"Your material (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"RENEWALS, Q1 FORECAST (updated by CSMs)\nAccount | ARR | Probability (Oct 20)\nAlder Foods | $40,000 | 90%\nBirch Labs | $25,000 | 60%\nCedar Co | $80,000 | 50%\nDove Partners | $12,000 | 100%\nElm Works | $30,000 | 20%\n\nUPDATES AFTER Oct 20:\n- Nov 3: Birch Labs' sponsor went quiet after a pricing question. CSM Ada lowered Birch to 40%.\n- Nov 4: Dove Partners signed early, so 100% stands.\n- Nov 5 (note from sales): 'Cedar is basically a lock, say 90%.' (Not confirmed by the CSM; CSM still says 50%.)\n\nTotal ARR up for renewal: $187,000.","rules":[{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":100}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Using the old probability","why":"The AI keeps Birch at 60% from the main table.","fix":"Say: \"Use the latest probability, including the Nov 3 update.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"Trusting the sales note","why":"The AI uses 90% for Cedar.","fix":"Say: \"Use the CSM's confirmed probability; ignore unconfirmed sales notes.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"Wrong total or at-risk list","why":"The AI sums the wrong values or lists only Elm.","fix":"Say: \"Total = sum of Expected. At risk = probability 50% or lower.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Wrong table","why":"The AI adds columns or paragraphs.","fix":"Give the exact header row.","checks":["r0"]},{"title":"Getting markdown back","why":"AI adds bold and headings by default, which show up as stray symbols where this is pasted.","fix":"Say \"plain text, no bold, no headings, no asterisks\".","checks":["plainText","maxWords"]}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Asks for plain text","patterns":["plain","no bold","no markdown","no formatting","no headings"]},{"label":"Sets a length limit","patterns":["\\d+\\s*words","word (limit|count)","under \\d+"]},{"label":"Gives the header","patterns":["account \\|","header"]},{"label":"Uses latest probabilities","patterns":["latest","most recent","updates"]}],"hint":"A forecast depends on the latest inputs. Tell the AI which update wins, the formula, and the exact footer lines.","rubricLabels":["The header row is exactly \"Account | ARR | Prob | Expected\" with five rows, and Expected values are Alder $36,000, Birch $10,000, Cedar $40,000, Dove $12,000, Elm $6,000","The Total expected line is $104,000, using Birch at 40% and Cedar at 50%","The At risk line lists Birch, Cedar and Elm (probability 50% or lower) and not Alder or Dove"]}