{"id":"dat-sales-weighted-pipeline-q4","audience":"sales","category":"data","technique":"grounding","title":"Build a weighted Q4 forecast after deals move stages","free":false,"task":"Your VP wants a weighted Q4 forecast. Write exactly 5 numbered lines, one per deal, each as Deal: $value x stage % = $weighted, using each deal's current stage and $0 for anything pushed out of Q4. Then one unnumbered last line: Q4 weighted forecast: $X. Plain text, under 90 words, nothing else.","materialLabel":"Pipeline export and rep updates (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"Q4 PIPELINE - export from Pipewise, Nov 1\n\nDeal | Value | Stage\nArbor Labs | $50,000 | Proposal\nKestrel Foods | $80,000 | Negotiation\nDunmore Clinic | $30,000 | Discovery\nPell & Co | $40,000 | Verbal yes\nTamsin Retail | $60,000 | Proposal\n\nStage probabilities: Discovery 10%, Proposal 40%, Negotiation 70%, Verbal yes 90%\n\nRep updates (Nov 4):\n- Tamsin Retail moved to Negotiation yesterday after legal review. Pipewise hasn't synced.\n- Pell & Co: CFO pushed signing to January. Out of Q4.\n- Kestrel: \"Feeling great, 100% closing\" (rep's gut, stage unchanged).\n- Dunmore wants a demo for their board in two weeks.","rules":[{"type":"numberedItems","count":5},{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":90}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Using the stale export","why":"The AI weights Tamsin at Proposal and keeps Pell in Q4.","fix":"Add: \"Apply the rep updates: Tamsin is in Negotiation, Pell moved to January.\"","checks":["r0","r1"]},{"title":"Taking the rep's gut feel","why":"The AI bumps Kestrel to 100% because the rep sounds confident.","fix":"Add: \"Use stage probabilities only, not rep confidence.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"Not asking to see the work","why":"Your VP can't check a bare forecast number.","fix":"Add a line to copy: \"1. Arbor Labs: $50,000 x 40% = $20,000\"","checks":["numberedItems","r2"]},{"title":"Trusting the AI to count words","why":"AI is bad at counting. Ask for a total word limit and it often lands over it.","fix":"Cap each line: \"each line under 14 words.\"","checks":["maxWords"]},{"title":"Forgetting where it goes","why":"AI loves markdown tables and bold, which show up as clutter in a forecast email.","fix":"Add: \"Plain text, no bold, headings or tables.\"","checks":["plainText"]}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Applies the rep updates","patterns":["update","tamsin|negotiation","pell|january|pushed"]},{"label":"Uses stage probabilities","patterns":["stage","probabilit","weight"]},{"label":"Asks to show the math","patterns":["show (the |your )?(math|work)","x \\$|\\bx\\b.{0,10}=","calculation","step"]},{"label":"Sets a word limit","patterns":["\\d+\\s*words","word (limit|count)","under \\d+"]},{"label":"Asks for plain text","patterns":["plain","no bold","no markdown","no formatting","no (headings|tables)"]}],"hint":"The export is out of date. Tell the AI which updates to apply, and to use stage probabilities only.","rubricLabels":["Tamsin Retail is weighted at Negotiation: $60,000 x 70% = $42,000","Pell & Co is $0 because it moved to January, and Kestrel stays at 70% ($56,000), not 100%","The last line gives Q4 weighted forecast: $121,000, and there is no intro or commentary"]}