{"id":"data2-chart-baseline-cherry-pick-check","audience":"marketing","category":"data","track":"data","technique":"verification","level":"beginner","title":"Check a \"300 percent growth\" claim against its baseline","free":false,"task":"A slide says 'Signups up 300% since July'. Check it against the monthly numbers. Write exactly 3 labeled lines in plain text, under 70 words: Claim math, Baseline problem and Fair statement. Show the percent math, name why July is a poor baseline, and give one fair sentence using the typical level.","materialLabel":"Slide and signup numbers (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"Slide 3 - \"Signups up 300% since July!\" (Glenwood Pet Supply)\n\nMonthly signups:\n- Jul: 100  (a website outage on Jul 12-22 cut signups; the site was down for 10 days)\n- Aug: 360\n- Sep: 390\n- Oct: 400\n\nSame months last year: Jul 370, Aug 350, Sep 380, Oct 385.\n\nNotes:\n- The percent change formula is (new - old) / old.\n- \"Typical level\" means the average of August, September and October of this year: (360 + 390 + 400) / 3 = 383.3, rounded to 383.\n- Last year's Jul to Oct average was 371.\n- The slide is for the owner's review on Friday.","rules":[{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":70}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Only repeating the claim","why":"The AI confirms 300% and moves on.","fix":"Add: \"Claim math: (400 - 100) / 100 = 300%, then say why July is a poor baseline.\"","checks":["r0"]},{"title":"Missing the outage","why":"The AI says July was 'low' without the cause.","fix":"Add: \"Baseline problem: the 10-day outage and last July's 370.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"No usable sentence","why":"The AI doesn't offer wording the owner can use.","fix":"Add: \"Fair statement: about 383 a month since August.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Leaving the format to chance","why":"The AI picks its own length and layout unless told the exact shape.","fix":"Add: \"Plain text, no bold or headings.\"","checks":["plainText"]},{"title":"Trusting the AI to count words","why":"AI is bad at counting. Ask for a total word limit and it often lands over it.","fix":"Cap each part instead, for example \"each line under 15 words.\"","checks":["maxWords"]}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Gives the three labels","patterns":["claim math:","baseline problem:","fair statement:"]},{"label":"Asks for percent math","patterns":["\\(400 ?- ?100\\)|300%"]},{"label":"Names the outage","patterns":["outage"]},{"label":"Uses the typical level","patterns":["383","august"]},{"label":"Rules out extras","patterns":["no intro","nothing after"]}],"hint":"A big percent often comes from a tiny base. Ask for the math, then the reason the baseline is odd.","mission":"Is this signup growth claim OK?","musts":["Three labeled lines","Percent math","Fair replacement"],"rubricLabels":["Claim math shows (400 - 100) / 100 = 300%, so the arithmetic is right","Baseline problem says July was depressed by the 10-day website outage, and last July was 370, so July is not a normal baseline","Fair statement uses the typical level, for example signups have held at about 383 a month since August (Oct 400), similar to last year's range, and the reply is exactly three lines labeled Claim math:, Baseline problem: and Fair statement:"]}