{"id":"data2-forecast-average-change-steps-owner","audience":"small-business","category":"data","track":"data","technique":"verification","level":"advanced","title":"Forecast next month with the average monthly change, step by step","free":false,"task":"A shop owner wants a simple December forecast from the last four months. Write exactly 4 labeled lines in plain text, under 90 words: Changes, Average change, Forecast and Caveat. Use sales without the one-time item, show each change and the average with the division, round to one decimal in $ thousands, and keep the caveat to one sentence.","materialLabel":"Monthly sales (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"Monthly sales - Alder & Finch Pantry ($ thousands)\n\nAug: 100\nSep: 115  (includes a one-time $5K bulk order from a wedding caterer that is not expected to repeat)\nOct: 120\nNov: 126\n\nMethod the owner wants:\n- Month-over-month change = this month - last month, in $ thousands.\n- Average change = the three changes added up and divided by 3.\n- Forecast for December = November + the average change.\n\nNotes:\n- The owner knows this is rough.\n- Holiday sales usually lift December, but this method ignores that.\n- Do not include the wedding order in September's figure.","rules":[{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":90}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Keeping the wedding order","why":"The AI uses 115 for September and gets a different average.","fix":"Add: \"Use September as 110, without the one-time $5K.\"","checks":["r0"]},{"title":"Skipping the steps","why":"The AI jumps to a forecast.","fix":"Add: \"Show the changes, the average (10 + 10 + 6) / 3, and 126 + 8.7.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"Overconfident","why":"The AI presents the number as a firm prediction.","fix":"Add: \"Caveat: one sentence on the holiday lift this method ignores.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Leaving the format to chance","why":"The AI picks its own length and layout unless told the exact shape.","fix":"Add: \"Plain text, no bold or headings.\"","checks":["plainText"]},{"title":"Trusting the AI to count words","why":"AI is bad at counting. Ask for a total word limit and it often lands over it.","fix":"Cap each part instead, for example \"each line under 15 words.\"","checks":["maxWords"]}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Gives the four labels","patterns":["changes:","average change:","forecast:","caveat:"]},{"label":"Removes the one-time item","patterns":["110","one.time","without"]},{"label":"Shows the average","patterns":["10 ?\\+ ?10 ?\\+ ?6","/ ?3"]},{"label":"Shows the forecast","patterns":["126 ?\\+","134\\.7"]},{"label":"Caps the caveat","patterns":["one sentence","under \\d+ words"]}],"hint":"Rough forecasts are only useful when the arithmetic is visible and the one-time item is removed.","mission":"Forecast next month's sales.","musts":["Remove one-time item","Show the average","Forecast and caveat"],"rubricLabels":["Changes shows the adjusted September of 110: +10 (Aug to Sep), +10 (Sep to Oct) and +6 (Oct to Nov)","Average change shows (10 + 10 + 6) / 3 = 8.7 and Forecast shows 126 + 8.7 = 134.7","Caveat is one sentence saying the method ignores the usual holiday lift in December (or that it is a rough estimate), and the reply is exactly four lines labeled Changes:, Average change:, Forecast: and Caveat:"]}