{"id":"data2-small-numbers-growth-claim-check","audience":"executives","category":"data","track":"data","technique":"verification","level":"intermediate","title":"Sanity-check a big growth claim built on small numbers","free":false,"task":"A slide says 'Enterprise deals up 40% in a week!' and your CEO, Ana Torres, wants to know if it holds up. Write exactly 4 labeled lines in plain text, under 100 words: Claim check, Math, Caveat and Safer wording. Show the percent math, name the small-number problem with the actual counts, and offer a headline that stays true.","materialLabel":"Slide and weekly counts (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"Sales slide draft (Redwood Systems)\n\nHeadline: \"Enterprise deals up 40% in a week!\"\n\nWeekly closed enterprise deals:\n- Week of Oct 20: 5 deals\n- Week of Oct 27: 7 deals\n\nOther weeks this quarter (enterprise deals closed per week):\nWeek 1: 6, Week 2: 4, Week 3: 8, Week 4: 5, Week 5: 7, Week 6: 5, Week 7: 7 (the last week on the slide)\nQuarter average: about 6 deals per week (42 deals in 7 weeks).\n\nContext:\n- Total enterprise revenue for the week of Oct 27: $420,000; for Oct 20: $350,000.\n- Last quarter's weekly average was 5 deals.\n- Ana wants to know if she can say this in the all-hands.","rules":[{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":100}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Approving the 40%","why":"The AI confirms the arithmetic and stops there.","fix":"Add: \"Say the math is right but the claim is misleading, and why.\"","checks":["r0"]},{"title":"Ignoring the normal range","why":"The AI doesn't compare to the other weeks (4 to 8 a week, average 6).","fix":"Add: \"Caveat: 2 extra deals; quarter range 4 to 8, average about 6.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"No replacement","why":"The AI criticizes without offering a true headline.","fix":"Add: \"Safer wording: quarter average 6 a week vs 5 last quarter.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Leaving the format to chance","why":"The AI picks its own length and layout unless told the exact shape.","fix":"Add: \"Plain text, no bold or headings.\"","checks":["plainText"]},{"title":"Trusting the AI to count words","why":"AI is bad at counting. Ask for a total word limit and it often lands over it.","fix":"Cap each part instead, for example \"each line under 15 words.\"","checks":["maxWords"]}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Names the reader","patterns":["ana","ceo"]},{"label":"Gives the labels","patterns":["claim check:","math:","caveat:","safer wording:"]},{"label":"Asks for raw counts","patterns":["2 (extra )?deals","range","average"]},{"label":"Asks for a safe headline","patterns":["safer wording","true"]},{"label":"Rules out extras","patterns":["no intro","nothing after"]}],"hint":"Percent changes on tiny counts mislead. Ask for the raw counts, the normal range, and a replacement headline.","mission":"Is this growth claim OK for the all-hands?","musts":["Four labeled lines","Counts show it's small","Safer headline"],"rubricLabels":["Claim check says the arithmetic is right (5 to 7 deals is +40%) but the claim is misleading, and Math shows (7 - 5) / 5 = 40%","Caveat names the small numbers: it is 2 extra deals, and the quarter ranged from 4 to 8 deals a week with an average of about 6, so 7 is within normal range","Safer wording gives a headline that stays true, such as 'Enterprise deals averaged 6 a week this quarter, up from 5 last quarter', in exactly four lines labeled Claim check:, Math:, Caveat: and Safer wording:"]}