{"id":"exec-strategy-bet-what-must-be-true","audience":"executives","category":"leadership-work","track":"leadership","level":"intermediate","technique":"format","title":"Write a one-page \"what must be true\" memo for a strategic bet","free":false,"task":"Write a memo in plain text, under 160 words, with exactly these labeled parts on their own lines: Bet:, Must be true:, Kill signal:. Under Must be true: write exactly 3 dash lines, each a condition with a number and a date from the notes. Kill signal: is one sentence using the threshold from the notes. Use the corrected figures, not the old ones.","materialLabel":"Strategy session notes (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"Premium tier bet - leadership session, Oct 28\n\nWe want to launch a Premium tier at $79 per seat per month by Mar 1.\n\nConditions we agreed would need to hold:\n- At least 15 percent of current customers say they would upgrade in the pilot (early survey said 22 percent, but only 40 people answered; the pilot of 300 accounts runs through Jan 31).\n- Premium gross margin stays at or above 70 percent. The first estimate was 74 percent, then Finance corrected it to 68 percent because of support costs; they expect to be back to 71 percent by Feb 15 with the new support model.\n- Support ticket volume per seat does not rise more than 10 percent during the pilot.\n\nIf pilot upgrade interest is under 8 percent by Jan 31, we stop and do not launch.\n\nSide discussion: whether to also redesign the logo. Parked.","rules":[{"type":"maxWords","max":160},{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxBullets","max":3}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Using the old margin","why":"The AI quotes the first 74 percent estimate.","fix":"Say: \"Use the corrected figures.\"","checks":["r1","r2"]},{"title":"No numbers or dates","why":"The AI writes vague conditions.","fix":"Say: \"Each condition has a number and a date from the notes.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"Missing kill signal","why":"The AI ends with a hopeful summary.","fix":"Say: \"Kill signal: one sentence with the 8 percent threshold.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Wrong structure","why":"The AI uses its own headings.","fix":"Say: \"Exactly these labels: Bet:, Must be true:, Kill signal:.\"","checks":["r0","maxBullets"]},{"title":"Markdown","why":"The AI uses bold and headings.","fix":"Say: \"Plain text.\"","checks":["plainText"]},{"title":"Trusting the AI to count words","why":"AI is bad at counting. Ask for a total word limit and it often lands over it.","fix":"Cap each part instead, for example: \"each line under 15 words.\"","checks":["maxWords"]}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Names the three labels","patterns":["bet:","must be true:","kill signal:"]},{"label":"Asks for number and date in each","patterns":["number and a date","with a number"]},{"label":"Says use corrected figures","patterns":["corrected","latest"]},{"label":"Limits to three lines","patterns":["exactly 3","three dash"]},{"label":"Plain text","patterns":["plain text"]}],"hint":"Name the three parts, say each condition needs a number and a date, and mention the corrected figures.","rubricLabels":["Has the labels Bet:, Must be true: and Kill signal: on their own lines in that order, with exactly three dash lines under Must be true:","The conditions each have a number and a date: 15 percent upgrade interest by Jan 31, margin of at least 70 percent with the corrected 68 percent now and 71 percent by Feb 15, and ticket volume rising no more than 10 percent during the pilot","The Kill signal is one sentence stopping the launch if pilot interest is under 8 percent by Jan 31, and the logo discussion and the 74 percent estimate are not used"]}