{"id":"exec-two-bets-decision-memo","audience":"executives","category":"leadership-work","technique":"format","track":"leadership","level":"intermediate","free":true,"title":"Make the one-page memo that decides which $2M bet gets funded","task":"Next year's budget can fund only one of these two initiatives, and the leadership team decides Monday. Write the one-page decision memo from you, Jordan Lee (Chief of Staff), to the CEO, Ana Whitfield. Plain text, under 290 words, with these capitalized labels on their own lines, in this order: RECOMMENDATION, THE MATH, THE CASE AGAINST, WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS, DECISION NEEDED. The first line of RECOMMENDATION names the ONE option you pick. THE MATH sets the two options side by side: 2-year revenue against cost, using finance's figures only. THE CASE AGAINST argues against your own pick. DECISION NEEDED is one sentence with the decision and the date.","materialLabel":"Finance model, pitches and notes (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"BUDGET: $2.0M is fundable next year. Only one initiative fits.\n\nFINANCE MODEL (Rosa Chen, FP&A), 2-year view\nA. Germany launch. Sponsor: Priya Nair, VP Growth. Cost $1.8M. Revenue: year 1 $0.6M, year 2 $2.4M. First revenue in month 9. Downside case: year 2 only $0.6M. Open risks: no German sales team yet; EU data-hosting work not started. Pipeline today: 9 inbound leads, 2 qualified.\nB. Core product rebuild. Sponsor: Dan Ortiz, CTO. Cost $1.6M. Revenue kept through lower churn: year 1 $0.4M, year 2 $1.4M. First release in month 6. Downside case: year 2 only $1.0M. Open risks: 2 senior engineers may leave; customers see no new features for 2 quarters. Context: churn is 12% a year on $20M of recurring revenue.\n\nTHE PITCHES\nPriya, in the deck: \"Germany is a $6M year-one opportunity. The pipeline is already there.\"\nDan, in the deck: \"The platform is one outage from a crisis, and every month we wait costs us customers.\" (There were 2 outages last year, each under an hour.)\n\nBOARD NOTE: Harold Voss, a board member, told Ana he has wanted a Europe office since 2019 and would be disappointed by another year at home.\n\nTIMING: Leadership decides Monday, Nov 9. The board signs off the budget on Nov 19.","rules":[{"type":"maxWords","max":290},{"type":"plainText"}],"mistakes":[{"title":"A balanced essay, no pick","why":"The AI lists pros and cons of both options and ends with \"both have merit\", so the CEO still has to decide alone.","fix":"Add: \"The first line of RECOMMENDATION names the ONE option you pick. Do not recommend both.\"","checks":["r0"]},{"title":"Repeating the sponsor's number","why":"The AI quotes the loudest claim from the pitch deck as if it were a forecast.","fix":"Add: \"Use finance's figures only, not the sponsors' pitches.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"No math side by side","why":"The AI describes the options in sentences instead of putting cost and 2-year revenue next to each other.","fix":"Add: \"THE MATH: 2-year revenue against cost for each option, side by side, with the difference.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"A weak case against","why":"The AI offers a vague risk or argues against the option it did not pick.","fix":"Add: \"THE CASE AGAINST argues against your own pick, using a fact from the material.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Letting a board opinion decide","why":"The AI treats a board member's wish as a reason, and ends with \"next steps\" instead of one dated decision.","fix":"Add: \"Do not use anyone's personal preference as a reason. DECISION NEEDED is one sentence with the date.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Trusting the AI to count words","why":"AI writes a long memo and adds markdown headings when you only say \"one page\".","fix":"Say \"under 250 words, plain text\" and cap each section, like \"2 short sentences\".","checks":["maxWords","plainText"]}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Names who it is for and from","patterns":["ceo","ana","one[- ]page","decision memo"]},{"label":"Puts the recommendation first","patterns":["recommendation","first line","one option","pick"]},{"label":"Shows the math side by side","patterns":["side by side","the math","revenue (against|vs|versus)","2-year"]},{"label":"Argues against its own pick","patterns":["case against","against your","strongest","what would change"]},{"label":"Uses finance's numbers and one dated decision","patterns":["finance'?s? (figures|numbers)","not the (sponsors?|pitch)","nov 9","monday","plain text"]}],"hint":"The CEO decides from this page alone. Say the section labels and their order, make the pick come first, ask for the math side by side from finance's figures, and ask for the strongest case against your own pick.","mission":"Give the CEO a one-page memo that picks one bet and shows why.","musts":["Pick first, with the math side by side","Finance's figures, not the sponsor's pitch","The case against your own pick, and one dated decision"],"rubricLabels":["The first line under RECOMMENDATION names exactly one option to fund (the Germany launch or the core rebuild), the five labels appear in the required order, and the memo does not recommend both, a split, or \"it depends\"","THE MATH shows both options side by side using finance's figures: Germany $3.0M revenue on $1.8M cost (+$1.2M), rebuild $1.8M revenue on $1.6M cost (+$0.2M), and it does not present the $6M year-one claim as an expected figure (calling it unsupported is fine)","THE CASE AGAINST argues against the chosen option with a specific fact from the material (not a generic worry), DECISION NEEDED is one sentence naming the decision and Monday, Nov 9, and the memo does not give Harold Voss's wish for a Europe office as a reason"]}