{"id":"fpa-allowance-provision-forecast-lines","audience":"fpa","category":"finance-work","track":"finance","technique":"verification","level":"intermediate","title":"Forecast the bad debt provision and the change in the allowance","free":false,"task":"You're forecasting next quarter's bad debt provision. Write a prompt for plain text with lines starting \"Provision:\", \"Expected write-offs:\" and \"Allowance change:\", each with the math. Provision is credit sales times the provision rate. The allowance changes by the provision minus write-offs. Don't mention the collections team's optimism. Under 60 words. No bullets or numbering.","materialLabel":"Credit sales, rates and write-off expectations (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"BAD DEBT PROVISION FORECAST - Q1 2027, Kestrel Home Goods\n\nForecast credit sales for the quarter: $2,000,000\nProvision rate set by the controller: 0.8% of credit sales\nExpected write-offs of specific customer balances in the quarter (from the AR review): $12,000\n\nMethod: provision = credit sales x provision rate. Allowance change = provision - write-offs (a positive number means the allowance grows).\n\nNotes: the collections team feels 'we will probably write off nothing this quarter'. The AR review lists $12,000 of balances expected to be written off; those are the working assumption. The provision rate is a controller decision and is not changed here.","rules":[{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":60},{"type":"maxBullets","max":0}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Names the three lines","patterns":["provision:","expected write-offs","allowance change"]},{"label":"Gives the rate","patterns":["0\\.8%"]},{"label":"Gives the change formula","patterns":["provision - write-offs","\\$16,000 - \\$12,000"]},{"label":"Bans the optimism","patterns":["(do not|don'?t).*(collections|team)"]},{"label":"Caps length","patterns":["\\d+\\s*words","plain"]}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Using zero write-offs","why":"The AI follows the collections team and shows +$16,000.","fix":"Say: \"Use the $12,000 from the AR review; do not mention the collections team's view.\"","checks":["r1","r2"]},{"title":"Wrong rate","why":"The AI uses 8% or 0.08%.","fix":"Add: \"Provision = credit sales x 0.8%.\"","checks":["r0"]},{"title":"Missing sign","why":"The AI shows $4,000 without saying the allowance grows.","fix":"Add: \"Allowance change with a plus sign.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Markdown extras","why":"The AI adds bold labels, headings and a closing note.","fix":"Say: \"Plain text, no bold. Output only the lines asked for.\"","checks":["plainText","maxBullets"]},{"title":"Trusting the AI to count words","why":"AI is bad at counting and runs past word limits.","fix":"Ask for fewer words than the real cap and keep each line short.","checks":["maxWords"]}],"hint":"A provision forecast uses the controller's rate and the review's write-offs. State both and ban the optimism.","rubricLabels":["The line starting \"Provision:\" shows $2,000,000 x 0.8% = $16,000","The line starting \"Expected write-offs:\" shows $12,000","The line starting \"Allowance change:\" shows $16,000 - $12,000 = +$4,000, and the output never mentions the collections team's optimism"]}