{"id":"fpa-forecast-bridge-double-count-memo","audience":"fpa","category":"finance-work","track":"finance","technique":"verification","level":"advanced","title":"Write a reforecast bridge memo that catches a double-counted item","free":false,"task":"You're drafting a reforecast bridge memo for the CFO. Write a prompt for plain text with three headings on their own lines, in this order: Bridge, Check, Open item. Bridge walks budget operating income to the latest forecast using the owners' items. Check applies Operations' note about double counting and shows where the bridge then ends. Open item states the unexplained amount for owners to confirm. Do not change the forecast yourself. Under 130 words.","materialLabel":"Source material (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"OPERATING INCOME REFORECAST ($ millions)\n\nBudget operating income: 5.0\nLatest forecast operating income (from the model): 4.4\n\nBridge items submitted by owners:\n- Revenue shortfall (Sales): -1.2\n- COGS savings (Operations): +0.5\n- Hiring delay savings (HR/FP&A): +0.6\n- Marketing overspend (Marketing): -0.5\n\nThe four items add to -0.6, which ties to the model: 5.0 - 0.6 = 4.4.\n\nNote from Operations, Nov 5: \"$0.3M of our COGS savings is the same saving as the support hiring delay, which is also in the hiring delay line.\"\n\nHR/FP&A says the hiring delay line of 0.6 is correct and complete. Operations says its remaining COGS savings, after removing the overlap, are 0.2.\n\nThe CFO presents the reforecast to the executive team on Nov 12 and wants to know whether the bridge can be trusted.","rules":[{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":130}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Names the three headings","patterns":["bridge","check","open item"]},{"label":"Shows both walks","patterns":["show","walk","sum"]},{"label":"Uses the overlap note","patterns":["overlap","double","operations"]},{"label":"Bans changing the forecast","patterns":["do not change","don'?t change","owners"]},{"label":"Caps length","patterns":["\\d+\\s*words","under \\d+"]}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Keeping the double count","why":"The AI accepts 4.4 because the bridge ties.","fix":"Say: \"Apply Operations' note and show where the bridge then ends.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"Rewriting the forecast","why":"The AI declares 4.1 the new forecast.","fix":"Add: \"Do not change the forecast; state the gap for owners to confirm.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Missing headings","why":"The AI writes one paragraph.","fix":"Add: \"Three plain headings: Bridge, Check, Open item.\"","checks":["r0"]},{"title":"No visible math","why":"The AI says the bridge ends lower with no numbers.","fix":"Add: \"Show each walk as a sum.\"","checks":["r0","r1"]},{"title":"Markdown extras","why":"The AI adds bold labels, headings and a closing note.","fix":"Say: \"Plain text, no bold. Output only the lines asked for.\"","checks":["plainText"]},{"title":"Trusting the AI to count words","why":"AI is bad at counting and runs past word limits.","fix":"Ask for fewer words than the real cap and keep each part short.","checks":["maxWords"]}],"hint":"A bridge that ties can still be wrong. Ask for the check and keep the decision with the owners.","rubricLabels":["Under Bridge the walk is 5.0 - 1.2 + 0.5 + 0.6 - 0.5 = 4.4","Under Check, removing the overlap leaves COGS savings of 0.2 and the walk ends at 4.1 (5.0 - 1.2 + 0.2 + 0.6 - 0.5)","Open item states the 0.3 difference between the model's 4.4 and the corrected bridge's 4.1 for owners to confirm, and the memo does not replace the forecast with 4.1 or say which number is right"]}