{"id":"fpa-fx-hedge-shock-lines","audience":"fpa","category":"finance-work","track":"finance","technique":"constraints","level":"advanced","title":"Size an FX shock on shekel payroll after the hedge","free":false,"task":"You're sizing a currency sensitivity for the CFO. Write a prompt for plain text with lines starting \"Base cost:\", \"Hedged part:\", \"Unhedged at shock:\", \"Total at shock:\" and \"Change:\", each with the math. Quarterly Israel payroll is paid in shekels (ILS), and the budget rate is ILS per USD. Only the unhedged portion moves with the rate. Round dollars to the nearest $1,000 and percents to one decimal. No forecast of where the rate will go. Under 90 words. No bullets or numbering.","materialLabel":"FX exposure notes (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"FX SENSITIVITY INPUTS - quarterly Israel payroll, Q1 2027, Orchard Analytics\n\nPayroll cost: 2,000,000 ILS per quarter (paid in shekels)\nBudget rate: 4.00 ILS per USD\nHedge: 40% of the quarterly ILS payroll is hedged with forward contracts at 4.00 ILS per USD. The remaining 60% is unhedged.\nShock to test: the shekel strengthens 10%, so the rate becomes 3.60 ILS per USD.\n\nNotes: U.S. payroll (USD) is not affected. A board member asked whether the shekel is likely to strengthen next year. Treasury has no view and FP&A does not forecast exchange rates. Rounding: dollars to the nearest $1,000.","rules":[{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":90},{"type":"maxBullets","max":0}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Names the five lines","patterns":["base cost","hedged part","unhedged at shock","total at shock","change:"]},{"label":"Separates hedged and unhedged","patterns":["hedged","unhedged","40%","60%"]},{"label":"Gives both rates","patterns":["4\\.00","3\\.60"]},{"label":"Bans predictions","patterns":["(do not|don'?t).*(predict|forecast)"]},{"label":"Caps length","patterns":["\\d+\\s*words","plain"]}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Shocking the whole payroll","why":"The AI applies the new rate to all 2,000,000 ILS.","fix":"Say: \"Only the unhedged 60% moves with the rate.\"","checks":["r1","r2"]},{"title":"Predicting the rate","why":"The AI comments on whether the shekel will strengthen.","fix":"Add: \"Do not predict exchange rates.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Mixing the currency direction","why":"The AI multiplies instead of dividing by an ILS-per-USD rate.","fix":"Say: \"USD = ILS / rate (ILS per USD).\"","checks":["r0"]},{"title":"Markdown extras","why":"The AI adds bold labels, headings and a closing note.","fix":"Say: \"Plain text, no bold. Output only the lines asked for.\"","checks":["plainText","maxBullets"]},{"title":"Trusting the AI to count words","why":"AI is bad at counting and runs past word limits.","fix":"Ask for fewer words than the real cap and keep each line short.","checks":["maxWords"]}],"hint":"A hedge limits the exposure, and the rate is quoted shekels per dollar. Say which part moves and which way to divide.","rubricLabels":["Base cost line shows 2,000,000 / 4.00 = $500,000 and Hedged part line shows 800,000 / 4.00 = $200,000 (unchanged at the shock)","Unhedged at shock line shows 1,200,000 / 3.60 = $333,000 (vs $300,000 at the budget rate) and Total at shock shows $200,000 + $333,000 = $533,000","Change line shows +$33,000, about 6.7% of the base cost, and no line predicts where the exchange rate will go"]}