{"id":"fpa-new-product-payback-month-lines","audience":"fpa","category":"finance-work","track":"finance","technique":"verification","level":"intermediate","title":"Find the payback month for a launch with a build delay","free":false,"task":"You're sizing the payback for a new product launch. Write a prompt for plain text with lines starting \"Launch cost:\", \"Contribution starts:\", \"Months of contribution needed:\" and \"Payback month:\", each with the math. Round the months needed up to a whole month. Payback month counts from the start of the build (month 1). Don't mention the sales team's faster estimate. Under 70 words. No bullets or numbering.","materialLabel":"Launch cost and contribution assumptions (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"NEW PRODUCT PAYBACK - Starter Kit Plus, Orchard Analytics\n\nOne-time launch cost: $90,000, spent during the build.\nBuild period: months 1 and 2. No revenue during the build.\nContribution (revenue less variable costs) starts in month 3 at $12,000 per month and stays flat.\n\nMethod: months of contribution needed = launch cost / monthly contribution, rounded up. Payback month = build months + months of contribution needed.\n\nNotes: the sales team believes payback will come 'by month 6' because they expect contribution to ramp up. The model assumes flat contribution; ramp scenarios are not part of this view. Unrecovered cost is not carried beyond the payback.","rules":[{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":70},{"type":"maxBullets","max":0}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Names the four lines","patterns":["launch cost","contribution starts","months of contribution needed","payback month"]},{"label":"Gives the rounding","patterns":["rounded up","7\\.5"]},{"label":"Counts the build months","patterns":["2 build months","build"]},{"label":"Bans the sales estimate","patterns":["(do not|don'?t).*(sales|ramp)"]},{"label":"Caps length","patterns":["\\d+\\s*words","plain"]}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Starting the count at month 1","why":"The AI says payback in month 8.","fix":"Say: \"Payback month = build months + months of contribution needed.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Not rounding up","why":"The AI shows 7.5 months and month 9.5.","fix":"Add: \"Round months needed up to a whole month.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"Echoing the sales estimate","why":"The AI says month 6 might be possible.","fix":"Add: \"Do not mention the sales team's estimate or ramp scenarios.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Markdown extras","why":"The AI adds bold labels, headings and a closing note.","fix":"Say: \"Plain text, no bold. Output only the lines asked for.\"","checks":["plainText","maxBullets","r0"]},{"title":"Trusting the AI to count words","why":"AI is bad at counting and runs past word limits.","fix":"Ask for fewer words than the real cap and keep each line short.","checks":["maxWords"]}],"hint":"Payback counts the build delay and rounds up. Give the formula, the rounding and the ban.","rubricLabels":["The line starting \"Launch cost:\" shows $90,000 and the line starting \"Contribution starts:\" shows month 3 at $12,000 per month","The line starting \"Months of contribution needed:\" shows $90,000 / $12,000 = 7.5, rounded up to 8","The line starting \"Payback month:\" shows 2 + 8 = month 10, and the output never mentions the sales team's month 6 estimate"]}