{"id":"fpa-probability-weighted-revenue-lines","audience":"fpa","category":"finance-work","track":"finance","technique":"verification","level":"intermediate","title":"Compute an expected revenue value using the corrected probabilities","free":false,"task":"You're giving the CFO a probability-weighted revenue view. Write a prompt for plain text with lines starting \"Low:\", \"Base:\", \"High:\", \"Probability check:\" and \"Expected value:\". Scenario lines show probability x revenue. The check line adds the probabilities and says whether they total 100%. Use the corrected Low probability. No advice and no view on which case is likeliest. Under 80 words. No bullets or numbering.","materialLabel":"Scenario table and correction note (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"FY27 REVENUE SCENARIOS - Quillbee Software ($ millions)\n\nScenario | Probability (draft) | Revenue\nLow | 30% | 9.0\nBase | 50% | 10.0\nHigh | 25% | 11.0\n\nCorrection (CFO, Nov 4): the Low probability is 25%, not 30%. Base and High are unchanged.\n\nNotes: a board member asked which case is most likely. Probabilities are management estimates and are not part of this arithmetic. Expected value = sum of probability x revenue.\n\nBackground: the scenarios were built in October from the sales pipeline and renewal data. Low assumes two large renewals are lost; High assumes a new partner channel launches in Q2. Revenue figures are for the full fiscal year 2027. The board will see the expected value on a single slide next to the three cases.","rules":[{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":80},{"type":"maxBullets","max":0}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Names the five lines","patterns":["low:","base:","high:","probability check","expected value"]},{"label":"Uses the correction","patterns":["corrected","25%"]},{"label":"Asks for the check","patterns":["total 100%","added"]},{"label":"Bans advice","patterns":["(no|don'?t).*(advice|likeliest)"]},{"label":"Caps length","patterns":["\\d+\\s*words","plain"]}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Using the draft 30%","why":"The AI uses 30% for Low and the check shows 105%.","fix":"Say: \"Use the corrected Low probability of 25%.\"","checks":["r0","r1"]},{"title":"Commenting on likelihood","why":"The AI says Base is the likeliest case.","fix":"Add: \"No comment on which case is likeliest.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Missing the check","why":"The AI skips the probability check.","fix":"Add: \"Probability check: add the three and say whether they total 100%.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"Markdown extras","why":"The AI adds bold labels, headings and a closing note.","fix":"Say: \"Plain text, no bold. Output only the lines asked for.\"","checks":["plainText","maxBullets"]},{"title":"Trusting the AI to count words","why":"AI is bad at counting and runs past word limits.","fix":"Ask for fewer words than the real cap and keep each line short.","checks":["maxWords"]}],"hint":"A correction note changes one probability. Use it, check the total and avoid commentary.","rubricLabels":["The lines starting \"Low:\", \"Base:\" and \"High:\" show 25% x 9.0 = 2.25, 50% x 10.0 = 5.00 and 25% x 11.0 = 2.75 (using the corrected 25% for Low)","The line starting \"Probability check:\" shows 25% + 50% + 25% = 100%","The line starting \"Expected value:\" shows 2.25 + 5.00 + 2.75 = $10.0M, and the output never says which case is likeliest or gives advice"]}