{"id":"fpa-run-rate-gap-lines","audience":"fpa","category":"finance-work","track":"finance","technique":"constraints","level":"beginner","title":"Annualize the year-to-date revenue and show the gap to budget","free":false,"task":"You're giving the CFO a quick run-rate check after October. Write a prompt for plain text with lines starting \"Monthly average:\", \"Annualized:\", \"Budget:\" and \"Gap:\", each with the math. Annualize with a simple average x 12. Don't mention seasonality, the pipeline or any forecast adjustments anywhere. Under 60 words. No bullets or numbering.","materialLabel":"YTD revenue and budget (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"RUN-RATE CHECK - through October 2026, Orchard Analytics ($ millions)\n\nRevenue, January to October (10 months): $8.40M\nFull-year revenue budget: $10.50M\n\nMethod used in the monthly review: monthly average = YTD revenue / months elapsed; annualized = monthly average x 12.\n\nContext from the sales director: 'Q4 is always our strongest quarter, and the pipeline for December looks good, so the run-rate understates where we will end up.' That view is not part of the run-rate calculation.\nThe CFO asked only for the simple arithmetic.","rules":[{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":60},{"type":"maxBullets","max":0}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Names the four lines","patterns":["monthly average","annualized","budget:","gap:"]},{"label":"Gives the formulas","patterns":["/ 10","x 12"]},{"label":"Asks for a percent of budget","patterns":["percent of budget"]},{"label":"Bans adjustments","patterns":["(do not|don'?t).*(seasonal|pipeline|adjust)"]},{"label":"Caps length","patterns":["\\d+\\s*words","plain"]}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Adding a seasonal adjustment","why":"The AI says Q4 will lift the year and softens the gap.","fix":"Add: \"Do not mention seasonality, the pipeline or adjustments.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Dividing by the wrong months","why":"The AI uses 12 months or 3 quarters for the average.","fix":"Say: \"Monthly average = YTD revenue / 10.\"","checks":["r0"]},{"title":"Gap shown without a percent","why":"The AI gives a dollar gap only.","fix":"Add: \"Gap in $M with a sign and as a percent of budget.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"Markdown extras","why":"The AI adds bold labels, headings and a closing note.","fix":"Say: \"Plain text, no bold. Output only the lines asked for.\"","checks":["plainText","maxBullets"]},{"title":"Trusting the AI to count words","why":"AI is bad at counting and runs past word limits.","fix":"Ask for fewer words than the real cap and keep each line short.","checks":["maxWords"]}],"hint":"A run-rate is simple arithmetic. Spell out the formulas and ban the optimistic commentary.","rubricLabels":["The line starting \"Monthly average:\" shows $8.40M / 10 = $0.84M and the line starting \"Annualized:\" shows $0.84M x 12 = $10.08M","The line starting \"Budget:\" shows $10.50M and the line starting \"Gap:\" shows $10.08M - $10.50M = -$0.42M, which is 4.0% below budget","The output never mentions seasonality, Q4 strength, the pipeline or any adjustment to the run-rate"]}