{"id":"fpa-seasonality-q4-lines","audience":"fpa","category":"finance-work","track":"finance","technique":"verification","level":"intermediate","title":"Spread an annual forecast by the revised seasonality index","free":false,"task":"You're setting monthly Q4 revenue targets. Write a prompt for plain text with lines starting \"Oct:\", \"Nov:\", \"Dec:\", \"Q4 total:\" and \"Oct vs actual:\". Each month is annual forecast x its share. Use the revised index. The last line compares Oct actual to target in dollars and percent. Under 70 words. No bullets or numbering.","materialLabel":"Annual forecast and seasonality index (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"SEASONALITY INPUTS - FY26 revenue, Birchwood Retail\n\nAnnual revenue forecast: $12,000,000\n\nShare of annual revenue by month:\nOctober: 8%\nNovember: 9%\nDecember: 12% in last year's index; revised to 11% in the Oct 20 update (the holiday sales peak shifted earlier).\n\nOctober actual revenue (preliminary): $930,000\n\nNotes: the revised index replaces last year's. The sales director would like the December target kept at 12% 'to stay ambitious'.\n\nBackground: the index is based on three years of daily sales. January to September shares are not needed for this question. The October actual will be final after the Nov 6 close; a late return of $8,000 might reduce it. The warehouse expects to ship holiday orders two weeks earlier than last year.","rules":[{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":70},{"type":"maxBullets","max":0}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Names the five lines","patterns":["oct:","nov:","dec:","q4 total","oct vs actual"]},{"label":"Uses the revised index","patterns":["revised","11%"]},{"label":"Gives the month formula","patterns":["x share","annual"]},{"label":"Asks for variance","patterns":["percent"]},{"label":"Caps length","patterns":["\\d+\\s*words","plain"]}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Using last year's December","why":"The AI uses 12% and gets $1,440,000.","fix":"Say: \"Use the revised index: December is 11%.\"","checks":["r0"]},{"title":"Following the sales director","why":"The AI keeps December at 12% to stay ambitious.","fix":"Add: \"The revised index replaces last year's.\"","checks":["r0"]},{"title":"Wrong variance base","why":"The AI divides the variance by actual.","fix":"Add: \"Percent of target.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Markdown extras","why":"The AI adds bold labels, headings and a closing note.","fix":"Say: \"Plain text, no bold. Output only the lines asked for.\"","checks":["plainText","maxBullets","r1"]},{"title":"Trusting the AI to count words","why":"AI is bad at counting and runs past word limits.","fix":"Ask for fewer words than the real cap and keep each line short.","checks":["maxWords"]}],"hint":"The index was revised and someone wants the old number. State which share to use and the variance base.","rubricLabels":["The lines starting \"Oct:\", \"Nov:\" and \"Dec:\" show $12,000,000 x 8% = $960,000, x 9% = $1,080,000 and x 11% = $1,320,000 (revised December share)","The line starting \"Q4 total:\" shows $960,000 + $1,080,000 + $1,320,000 = $3,360,000","The line starting \"Oct vs actual:\" shows $930,000 - $960,000 = -$30,000, about -3.1%"]}