{"id":"revops-category-weighted-forecast-lines","audience":"revops","category":"sales-work","technique":"verification","track":"sales","level":"intermediate","title":"Weight a forecast by category probabilities","free":false,"task":"Calculate the weighted forecast from the category totals. Write exactly 5 plain-text lines starting Commit:, Best Case:, Pipeline:, Weighted total:, Gap to target:. Show the math in each line using plain numbers (no $ or commas) and the current probabilities, not the retired ones. Under 60 words.","materialLabel":"Your notes (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"FORECAST BY CATEGORY (Q4, as of Nov 6) - US dollars\nCommit: 780000\nBest Case: 420000\nPipeline: 600000\nQ4 target: 1100000\n\nPROBABILITIES USED FOR THE WEIGHTED FORECAST\nCurrent (effective Oct 1): Commit 90 percent, Best Case 50 percent, Pipeline 10 percent.\nRetired (do not use): Commit 80 percent, Best Case 40 percent, Pipeline 5 percent.\n\nNote: the CRO wants one weighted number for the board; the weighted forecast is a model, not a prediction of exact bookings.\nCategory definitions in short: Commit means written buyer approval and legal started; Best Case means stage 4 or later with a meeting booked; Pipeline is everything else that is open. Amounts are summed by deal amount (first-year ACV). Last quarter the weighted forecast landed within 6 percent of actual bookings.","rules":[{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":60}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Using retired probabilities","why":"The AI picks the 80/40/5 set.","fix":"Add: \"Use the current probabilities: 90, 50, 10 percent.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Skipping the math","why":"The AI gives results without the working.","fix":"Add: \"Show the math in every line, e.g. 780000 x 0.9 = 702000.\"","checks":["r0","r1"]},{"title":"Formatting","why":"The AI writes a table with $ and commas.","fix":"Add: \"Five plain-text lines, plain numbers, under 60 words.\"","checks":["plainText","maxWords"]}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Names the five lines","patterns":["commit:","best case:","pipeline:","weighted total","gap to target"]},{"label":"Current probabilities","patterns":["current","90","not the retired"]},{"label":"Shows math","patterns":["show the math","x 0\\.9"]},{"label":"Plain numbers","patterns":["no \\$","commas","plain"]},{"label":"Caps","patterns":["under 60 words"]}],"hint":"Name the five lines, use the current probabilities, show the math, and use plain numbers.","rubricLabels":["Commit shows 780000 x 0.9 = 702000, Best Case shows 420000 x 0.5 = 210000, and Pipeline shows 600000 x 0.1 = 60000","Weighted total shows 702000 + 210000 + 60000 = 972000, and Gap to target shows 1100000 - 972000 = 128000","Uses the current probabilities (not the retired 80/40/5), has exactly five lines in the given order, and uses plain numbers with no $ or commas"]}