{"id":"revops-forecast-accuracy-error-table","audience":"revops","category":"sales-work","technique":"verification","track":"sales","level":"intermediate","title":"Compute forecast error by quarter and call out the bias","free":false,"task":"Make a markdown table with columns Quarter | Forecast | Actual | Error. Error is (Actual minus Forecast) divided by Forecast, as a percent with one decimal and a sign like -5.0% or +2.5%. After the table write one line starting \"Bias:\" saying whether the team over-forecast or under-forecast in most quarters, with the count (like 3 of 4). Use closed-won actuals only. Plain text, nothing else, under 100 words.","materialLabel":"Forecast vs actual history (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"Commit-category forecast at the start of the last month of each quarter vs closed-won revenue ($K):\n\nQuarter | Forecast (commit) | Closed won actual | Closed won + signed after quarter end\nQ4 2025 | 2,000 | 1,900 | 1,960\nQ1 2026 | 1,800 | 1,710 | 1,800\nQ2 2026 | 2,200 | 2,310 | 2,310\nQ3 2026 | 2,500 | 2,250 | 2,400\n\nThe last column includes deals that signed in the first week of the next quarter; the CFO does not count those as actuals. Use the third column.\n\nNote: an exec said the team is \"usually spot on.\" Check against the data.","rules":[{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":100}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Using the post-quarter column","why":"The AI picks the larger last column.","fix":"Add: \"Use the closed-won actual column only.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"Wrong sign or base","why":"The AI divides by actual or flips the sign.","fix":"Add: \"Error = (Actual - Forecast) / Forecast with a sign.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"Missing count in the bias line","why":"The AI says 'generally over'.","fix":"Add: \"Bias line gives the count like 3 of 4.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Bold and commentary","why":"The AI bolds and explains.","fix":"Add: \"Plain text, nothing else.\"","checks":["r0","plainText","maxWords"]}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Names the columns","patterns":["quarter","forecast","actual","error"]},{"label":"Defines error","patterns":["actual minus forecast","divided by forecast","sign"]},{"label":"Uses closed-won only","patterns":["closed.won","third column","actual column"]},{"label":"Adds a Bias line","patterns":["bias:","over.forecast","3 of 4","count"]},{"label":"Plain output","patterns":["plain text","nothing else","no bold"]}],"hint":"Define the error formula and sign, name the column to use and describe the Bias line.","rubricLabels":["Is a table with columns Quarter, Forecast, Actual and Error with exactly four rows in chronological order","Errors use the closed-won actual column: Q4 2025 -5.0%, Q1 2026 -5.0%, Q2 2026 +5.0%, Q3 2026 -10.0%","The final line starts with \"Bias:\" and says the team over-forecast in 3 of 4 quarters, and no bold or extra text appears"]}