{"id":"revops-renewal-forecast-risk-weighted","audience":"revops","category":"sales-work","technique":"verification","track":"sales","level":"advanced","title":"Weight renewals by health color and compare to the target","free":false,"task":"Estimate expected renewal dollars by weighting each health group by its renewal probability. Write exactly 5 numbered lines: 1. Green, 2. Yellow, 3. Red, 4. Expected total, 5. Gap to target with a verdict word (On track or Short). Show the multiplication in lines 1 to 3, the sum in line 4 and the subtraction in line 5. Use the probabilities in the policy, not the old ones. Plain text.","materialLabel":"Renewal book and policy (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"Q1 2027 renewals up for renewal ($K):\n- Green accounts (healthy): 400 total\n- Yellow accounts (at risk): 300 total\n- Red accounts (likely to churn): 200 total\nTotal up for renewal: 900.\n\nRenewal probabilities (CS policy, Oct 2026): Green 95%, Yellow 70%, Red 30%.\nOld probabilities (2025, do not use): Green 90%, Yellow 60%, Red 20%.\n\nRetention target for the quarter: 750 (renewed dollars).\nVerdict rule: On track if expected total is at or above the target; Short if below.\n\nNote: two Red accounts in the 200 (worth 80 combined) have signed intent letters. Intent letters are not renewals; keep them in Red at the policy probability.","rules":[{"type":"numberedItems","count":5},{"type":"plainText"}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Using the old probabilities","why":"The AI uses 90/60/20.","fix":"Add: \"Use the Oct 2026 policy probabilities.\"","checks":["r1","r2"]},{"title":"Adjusting for intent letters","why":"The AI moves the 80 to renewed.","fix":"Add: \"Keep intent-letter accounts in Red at the policy probability.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Missing the verdict","why":"The AI states the gap with no verdict word.","fix":"Add: \"Line 5 ends with On track or Short.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Unstructured answer","why":"The AI writes a table and paragraphs.","fix":"Add: \"Exactly 5 numbered lines, plain text.\"","checks":["r0","numberedItems","plainText"]}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Lists the five lines","patterns":["green","yellow","red","expected total","gap"]},{"label":"Asks for the multiplication","patterns":["multipl","x 95%","show"]},{"label":"Uses current probabilities","patterns":["policy","oct(ober)? 2026","not the old"]},{"label":"Asks for a verdict","patterns":["on track","short","verdict"]},{"label":"Plain numbered lines","patterns":["plain text","exactly 5","numbered"]}],"hint":"Name each line, ask to see the math and say which probabilities to use.","rubricLabels":["Has exactly 5 numbered lines labeled Green, Yellow, Red, Expected total and Gap to target in that order","Lines 1 to 3 show 400 x 95% = 380, 300 x 70% = 210 and 200 x 30% = 60, and line 4 shows 380 + 210 + 60 = 650","Line 5 shows 750 - 650 = 100 with the verdict Short, and the old probabilities or an upward adjustment for the intent letters are not used"]}