{"id":"revops-stage-probability-calibration-table","audience":"revops","category":"sales-work","technique":"verification","track":"sales","level":"intermediate","title":"Compare assumed and actual stage conversion and flag recalibration","free":false,"task":"Make a markdown table with columns Stage | Assumed | Actual | Gap | Action, one row per stage in the order given. Gap is Actual minus Assumed in percentage points with a sign like -16. Action is \"Recalibrate\" if the absolute gap is more than 10 points, otherwise \"Keep\". No bold, nothing outside the table, under 90 words.","materialLabel":"Stage probabilities vs last 12 months (attached to your prompt automatically)","material":"Assumed stage-to-close probability (current CRM settings) versus actual closed-won rate for opportunities that reached each stage in the last 12 months:\n\nStage | Assumed | Actual (won / reached)\nDiscovery | 10% | 8% (96 of 1,200)\nDemo | 25% | 31% (186 of 600)\nProposal | 50% | 34% (102 of 300)\nNegotiation | 75% | 62% (62 of 100)\n\nRule: recalibrate when the absolute gap is more than 10 percentage points; exactly 10 is Keep.\n\nA director said, \"Our probabilities are too conservative.\" Check against the data.","rules":[{"type":"plainText"},{"type":"maxWords","max":90}],"mistakes":[{"title":"Wrong sign","why":"The AI computes Assumed minus Actual.","fix":"Add: \"Gap = Actual minus Assumed, with a sign.\"","checks":["r1"]},{"title":"Wrong threshold","why":"The AI flags Demo (+6) because it differs.","fix":"Add: \"Recalibrate only if the absolute gap is over 10 points.\"","checks":["r2"]},{"title":"Agreeing with the director","why":"The AI says probabilities are conservative.","fix":"Add: \"Check against the data; only the table.\"","checks":["r0","maxWords"]},{"title":"Bold","why":"The AI bolds flagged rows.","fix":"Add: \"No bold.\"","checks":["plainText"]}],"promptHints":[{"label":"Names the columns","patterns":["stage","assumed","actual","gap","action"]},{"label":"Defines the gap","patterns":["actual minus assumed","percentage points","sign"]},{"label":"Sets the threshold","patterns":["more than 10","absolute","recalibrate"]},{"label":"Keeps the order","patterns":["order given"]},{"label":"Table only","patterns":["no bold","nothing outside"]}],"hint":"Define the gap with sign, the threshold and ask for only the table.","rubricLabels":["Is a table with columns Stage, Assumed, Actual, Gap and Action with exactly 4 rows in the order Discovery, Demo, Proposal, Negotiation","Gaps are Discovery -2, Demo +6, Proposal -16 and Negotiation -13","Actions are Keep for Discovery and Demo and Recalibrate for Proposal and Negotiation, with no bold and nothing outside the table"]}