Forecast the bad debt provision and the change in the allowance

About this exercise

You're forecasting next quarter's bad debt provision. Write a prompt for plain text with lines starting "Provision:", "Expected write-offs:" and "Allowance change:", each with the math. Provision is credit sales times the provision rate. The allowance changes by the provision minus write-offs. Don't mention the collections team's optimism. Under 60 words. No bullets or numbering.

Common mistakes when you ask AI for this

• Using zero write-offs. The AI follows the collections team and shows +$16,000. Try: Say: "Use the $12,000 from the AR review; do not mention the collections team's view."
• Wrong rate. The AI uses 8% or 0.08%. Try: Add: "Provision = credit sales x 0.8%."
• Missing sign. The AI shows $4,000 without saying the allowance grows. Try: Add: "Allowance change with a plus sign."
• Markdown extras. The AI adds bold labels, headings and a closing note. Try: Say: "Plain text, no bold. Output only the lines asked for."
• Trusting the AI to count words. AI is bad at counting and runs past word limits. Try: Ask for fewer words than the real cap and keep each line short.

What a strong prompt includes

• Names the three lines
• Gives the rate
• Gives the change formula
• Bans the optimism
• Caps length

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