Forecast renewals by removing known churn first

About this exercise

You're forecasting Q1 contract renewals. Write a prompt for plain text with lines starting "Up for renewal:", "Known churn:", "Expected renewed:" and "Expected loss:", each with the math. Remove known churn first, then apply the historical renewal rate to what remains. Expected loss is up for renewal minus expected renewed, split into known and expected. Don't mention the sales team's belief that all will renew. Under 80 words. No bullets or numbering.

Common mistakes when you ask AI for this

• Applying 90% to all contracts. The AI applies 90% to $200,000 and gets $180,000. Try: Say: "Remove known churn first, then apply 90% to what remains."
• Echoing the goal. The AI says all 40 could renew. Try: Add: "Do not mention the account team's goal."
• Loss without the split. The AI reports $29,000 with no known/expected split. Try: Add: "Expected loss with the known and expected parts."
• Markdown extras. The AI adds bold labels, headings and a closing note. Try: Say: "Plain text, no bold. Output only the lines asked for."
• Trusting the AI to count words. AI is bad at counting and runs past word limits. Try: Ask for fewer words than the real cap and keep each line short.

What a strong prompt includes

• Names the four lines
• Removes known churn first
• Gives the rate
• Bans the goal
• Caps length

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