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Spread an annual forecast by the revised seasonality index
- For FP&A and financial analysts
- You practice Catching mistakes and made-up facts
- Time about 5 minutes
- Level Intermediate
About this exercise
You're setting monthly Q4 revenue targets. Write a prompt for plain text with lines starting "Oct:", "Nov:", "Dec:", "Q4 total:" and "Oct vs actual:". Each month is annual forecast x its share. Use the revised index. The last line compares Oct actual to target in dollars and percent. Under 70 words. No bullets or numbering.
Common mistakes when you ask AI for this
- Using last year's December. The AI uses 12% and gets $1,440,000. Try: Say: "Use the revised index: December is 11%."
- Following the sales director. The AI keeps December at 12% to stay ambitious. Try: Add: "The revised index replaces last year's."
- Wrong variance base. The AI divides the variance by actual. Try: Add: "Percent of target."
- Markdown extras. The AI adds bold labels, headings and a closing note. Try: Say: "Plain text, no bold. Output only the lines asked for."
- Trusting the AI to count words. AI is bad at counting and runs past word limits. Try: Ask for fewer words than the real cap and keep each line short.
What a strong prompt includes
- Names the five lines
- Uses the revised index
- Gives the month formula
- Asks for variance
- Caps length
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