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Draft a scenario decision page for a second sales office

  • For Executives
  • You practice Setting limits and rules
  • Time about 5 minutes
  • Level Advanced

About this exercise

You're the COO preparing a decision line for the CEO on opening a second sales office. Write one line each for Base, Upside and Downside showing year-1 revenue − cost = profit and its probability, then a Weighted line with the math, then a last line starting "Recommendation for CEO:". The board's rule is that any plan with a downside loss over $250,000 needs a named mitigation first. Use the revised downside, no bullets, plain text, under 100 words.

Common mistakes when you ask AI for this

  • Using the stale downside. The AI uses the table and misses the Sales VP's later revision. Try: Add: "Use the revised downside revenue of $0.7M."
  • No weighted view. The AI compares scenarios side by side but doesn't combine them with the probabilities. Try: Ask: "Add a Weighted line showing probability × profit for each, summed."
  • Recommending without the rule. The AI doesn't know the board's $250,000 downside limit, so it recommends going ahead. Try: State the rule: "Any downside loss over $250,000 needs a named mitigation."
  • Bulleting everything. The AI turns a decision page into bullets and headings. Try: Say: "Plain lines, no bullets, no headings."
  • Trusting the AI to count words. AI is bad at counting and usually runs long on finance write-ups. Try: Cap each part instead: "each line under 15 words" so the total stays well under 100.

What a strong prompt includes

  • Uses the revised downside
  • Asks for weighted math
  • States the board rule
  • Puts the recommendation last
  • Sets a length limit

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