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Write a one-page "what must be true" memo for a strategic bet

  • For Executives
  • You practice Asking for a format you can use
  • Time about 5 minutes
  • Level Intermediate

About this exercise

Write a memo in plain text, under 160 words, with exactly these labeled parts on their own lines: Bet:, Must be true:, Kill signal:. Under Must be true: write exactly 3 dash lines, each a condition with a number and a date from the notes. Kill signal: is one sentence using the threshold from the notes. Use the corrected figures, not the old ones.

Common mistakes when you ask AI for this

  • Using the old margin. The AI quotes the first 74 percent estimate. Try: Say: "Use the corrected figures."
  • No numbers or dates. The AI writes vague conditions. Try: Say: "Each condition has a number and a date from the notes."
  • Missing kill signal. The AI ends with a hopeful summary. Try: Say: "Kill signal: one sentence with the 8 percent threshold."
  • Wrong structure. The AI uses its own headings. Try: Say: "Exactly these labels: Bet:, Must be true:, Kill signal:."
  • Markdown. The AI uses bold and headings. Try: Say: "Plain text."
  • Trusting the AI to count words. AI is bad at counting. Ask for a total word limit and it often lands over it. Try: Cap each part instead, for example: "each line under 15 words."

What a strong prompt includes

  • Names the three labels
  • Asks for number and date in each
  • Says use corrected figures
  • Limits to three lines
  • Plain text

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