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Build a weighted Q4 forecast after deals move stages
Practice: Keeping the AI to your sources. About 5 minutes.
About this exercise
Your VP wants a weighted Q4 forecast. Write exactly 5 numbered lines, one per deal, each as Deal: $value x stage % = $weighted, using each deal's current stage and $0 for anything pushed out of Q4. Then one unnumbered last line: Q4 weighted forecast: $X. Plain text, under 90 words, nothing else.
Common mistakes when you ask AI for this
- Using the stale export. The AI weights Tamsin at Proposal and keeps Pell in Q4. Try: Add: "Apply the rep updates: Tamsin is in Negotiation, Pell moved to January."
- Taking the rep's gut feel. The AI bumps Kestrel to 100% because the rep sounds confident. Try: Add: "Use stage probabilities only, not rep confidence."
- Not asking to see the work. Your VP can't check a bare forecast number. Try: Add a line to copy: "1. Arbor Labs: $50,000 x 40% = $20,000"
- Trusting the AI to count words. AI is bad at counting. Ask for a total word limit and it often lands over it. Try: Cap each line: "each line under 14 words."
- Forgetting where it goes. AI loves markdown tables and bold, which show up as clutter in a forecast email. Try: Add: "Plain text, no bold, headings or tables."
What a strong prompt includes
- Applies the rep updates
- Uses stage probabilities
- Asks to show the math
- Sets a word limit
- Asks for plain text
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