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Compute forecast error by quarter and call out the bias
- For Revenue operations
- You practice Catching mistakes and made-up facts
- Time about 5 minutes
- Level Intermediate
About this exercise
Make a markdown table with columns Quarter | Forecast | Actual | Error. Error is (Actual minus Forecast) divided by Forecast, as a percent with one decimal and a sign like -5.0% or +2.5%. After the table write one line starting "Bias:" saying whether the team over-forecast or under-forecast in most quarters, with the count (like 3 of 4). Use closed-won actuals only. Plain text, nothing else, under 100 words.
Common mistakes when you ask AI for this
- Using the post-quarter column. The AI picks the larger last column. Try: Add: "Use the closed-won actual column only."
- Wrong sign or base. The AI divides by actual or flips the sign. Try: Add: "Error = (Actual - Forecast) / Forecast with a sign."
- Missing count in the bias line. The AI says 'generally over'. Try: Add: "Bias line gives the count like 3 of 4."
- Bold and commentary. The AI bolds and explains. Try: Add: "Plain text, nothing else."
What a strong prompt includes
- Names the columns
- Defines error
- Uses closed-won only
- Adds a Bias line
- Plain output
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