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Make a ship decision when two metrics move in opposite directions

  • For Product managers
  • You practice Catching mistakes and made-up facts
  • Time about 5 minutes
  • Level Advanced

About this exercise

Your pricing-display test raised revenue per visitor but lowered conversion. Write exactly 4 labeled lines in plain text, under 100 words: Primary, Guardrail, Decision and Risk. Show each difference with its math and apply the pre-registered rule, not the Slack opinions. Decision must start with Ship or Do not ship.

Common mistakes when you ask AI for this

  • Siding with the growth lead. The AI refuses to ship because conversion fell. Try: Add: "Apply the rule: ship if revenue per visitor is up 2%+ and conversion fell 0.5 points or less."
  • Percent math skipped. The AI says revenue per visitor is up without computing 3.9%. Try: Add: "Primary: +$0.12 / $3.10 = +3.9%."
  • No risk line. The AI declares victory. Try: Add: "Risk: the conversion drop is the biggest this year, or international isn't tested."
  • Leaving the format to chance. The AI picks its own length and layout unless told the exact shape. Try: Add: "Plain text, no bold or headings."
  • Trusting the AI to count words. AI is bad at counting. Ask for a total word limit and it often lands over it. Try: Cap each part instead, for example "each line under 15 words."

What a strong prompt includes

  • Names the four labels
  • Applies the rule
  • Shows the math
  • Fixes the decision wording
  • Ignores Slack

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